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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates fell to 6.37%, but strong jobs data and inflation concerns continue to shape the outlook.

Kate Wood
Dawnielle Robinson-Walker
Updated
Mortgage rates moved lower this week, but inflation concerns and strong economic data are still shaping the outlook. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell eight basis points to 6.37% APR in the week ending June 5, according to Zillow data provided to NerdWallet.
While the decline offers some relief, a resilient job market and stubborn inflation could keep rates from falling much further. Stronger-than-expected employment reports have reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, leaving buyers to contend with elevated borrowing costs alongside high home prices and everyday expenses.
» MORE: How much house can I afford?

🤓 Kate On Rates: June 5, 2026

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June mortgage rates forecast

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting. With inflation running hotter than expected, the Fed may have to consider keeping borrowing costs higher for longer — or even raising rates again if prices continue climbing. Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, lenders tend to shift rates up or down in anticipation of Fed policy changes.
That could make mortgages even more expensive for buyers already dealing with high home prices, grocery bills and gas costs. For anyone shopping for a home this summer, comparing multiple lenders may matter more than ever.
» MORE: How to choose a mortgage lender

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