Current Unemployment Rate and Other Jobs Report Findings
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Updated on Nov. 14 with jobless claims data from the Department of Labor.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in October — the same as September, according to the jobs report released on Nov. 1 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Job gains came in far below projections for October, with a total of 12,000. The consensus estimated monthly expectation was an increase of 120,000, according to Morningstar, an investing firm. The report from the bureau says hurricanes in the southeast likely impacted data collection in October.
Job gains were primarily in health care and government. Manufacturing jobs declined because of strike activity, according to the report.
» MORE: How is the economy doing?
What are the weekly jobless claims?
Initial jobless claims declined by 4,000 for the week ending Nov. 9, according to the report released on Nov. 14.
The weekly jobless claims, or initial claims, are the number of unemployment insurance claims filed in the past week. They provide an indicator of the strength — or weakness — of the labor market.
Jobless claims fell to 217,000 for the week ending Nov. 9. Last week’s unrevised level was 221,000.
The new four-week moving average — a measurement of the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the last four weeks — was 221,000, which is 6,250 lower than the previous week’s unrevised average of 227,250.
What's the insured unemployment rate?
Not all types of unemployment are included as part of the insured unemployment rate. It only includes "covered unemployment," as in people who receive unemployment benefits. Those who quit their jobs, for example, aren't included in the insured unemployment rate because they aren't eligible for unemployment benefits.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate — the rate of continuous covered unemployment claims divided by covered employment — was 1.2% for the week ending Nov. 2, which is unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate.
How many jobs were added in October?
The economy added 12,000 (nonfarm) jobs in October, according to the BLS.
223,000 in September 2024
78,000 in August 2024
144,000 in July 2024
118,000 in June 2024
216,000 in May 2024
303,000 in March 2024
270,000 in February 2024
256,000 in January 2024
What is the current unemployment rate?
The current unemployment rate is 4.1% for October, unchanged from September. The rate is higher than unemployment rates during 2023. In October 2023, the unemployment rate was 3.8%.
Is unemployment rising or falling?
The unemployment rate held steady between September and October after falling incrementally since July. The unemployment rate largely rose since March, when it was 3.8%.
How to calculate the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate
What is the labor force participation rate?
The labor force participation rate is 62.6%, which is a very slight decline from September to October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working or looking for work.
The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total population that’s eligible to work. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the total population that’s eligible to work as the “civilian noninstitutional population,” which refers to people ages 16 and older who are not in military service or incarcerated.) The result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Labor force / Civilian noninstitutional population x 100 = X%, which is the labor force participation rate
Since October 2002, the labor force participation rate was lowest in April 2020 (60.1%) and highest in June 2003 (66.5%), according to BLS data.
How is the job market right now?
In recent months, key labor market indicators — job openings, quit rate and layoffs — showed the tight labor market is beginning to loosen. But continuous job growth shows the job market remains resilient.
What does the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary report show?
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on Oct. 29, shows job openings were 7.4 million in September. The number of openings are down by 1.9 million compared to a year ago according to the report.
7.9 million in August 2024.
7.7 million in July 2024.
7.9 million in June 2024.
8.2 million in May 2024.
7.9 million in April 2024
8.4 million in March 2024.
8.8 million in February 2024
8.7 million in January 2024
The seasonally adjusted job openings rate in September ticked down slightly compared to August at 4.5%. By comparison, the job openings rate in September 2023 was 5.6%.
The number of job openings in September declined in health care and social assistance (-178,000); state and local government, excluding education (-79,000); and federal government (-28,000) but rose in finance and insurance (+85,000).
The rate of layoffs in September (1.2%) increased slightly from the August rate (1%), according to the JOLTS report.
What is the quit rate?
The JOLTS report also shows the quit rate in September was 1.9%. By comparison, in September 2023 the quit rate was 2.3%. Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing and utilities (-45,000); arts, entertainment and recreation (-18,000); and private educational services (-11,000).
Economists say quit rates are a key factor in the health of employment prospects since quitting shows that workers feel safe making a job switch within their sector or outside it entirely.
The current quit rate is consistent with pre-pandemic levels after peaking at 3% in both Nov. 2021 and April 2022.
Are wages increasing?
Wage growth is moderating from what it was a year ago but is still higher than it was pre-pandemic, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The three-month moving average of median hourly wage growth — when measured over the previous 12 months — has slowed from its peak in the summer of 2022.
For September, the three-month wage growth percent change was 4.6%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than September’s three-month moving average rate (4.7%).
The 12-month moving average was 5% for October. By comparison, the percent change for October 2023 from a year prior was 5.8%. If you look back even further, at the percent change for October 2020 from a year prior, the rate was 3.8%.
» MORE: Is the pay gap real?
Below, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data for August shows a steady decline in the three-month moving average of wage growth compared to the peak in June 2022 and July 2022.
What does the Employment Cost Index Show?
Increases in compensation costs were smaller in the second quarter of 2024, compared with the previous quarter, according to the most recent BLS Employment Cost Index, which measures wage and salary growth. Wages and salaries, as well as benefits comprise total compensation costs.
The Oct. 31 report shows compensation costs increased by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024 compared with 0.9% in the second quarter.
Year-over-year measurements show that compensation cost increases slowed down slightly in the third quarter of 2024 (3.9%) compared to the previous four quarters:
June 2024: 4.1%
March 2024: 4.2%
December 2023: 4.2%
September 2023: 4.3%
For the 12-month period ending in September 2024, wages and salaries had a slower increase (3.9%) compared with the 12-month period ending in September 2023 (4.6%).
Benefit costs also had a slower increase in the 12-month period ending in September (3.7%) compared to a year ago (4.1%).
Will unemployment rise?
The labor market is still tight, but continues to show signs of slackening.
The recent rise in unemployment was a byproduct of monetary policymakers’ effort to curb inflation by hiking interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. Now that inflation is consistently slowing, the Fed has taken steps to prevent unemployment from rising further.
The Fed cut rates on Sept. 18 and is expected to keep doing so in the coming months. “We're trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the announcement.
» MORE: What is the minimum wage?
When is the next jobs report?
The next jobs report will show data for November and it will be released on Dec. 6.
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
