Current Unemployment Rate and Other Jobs Report Findings
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Updated on Jan. 10 with data from the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The unemployment rate went down slightly at 4.1% in December — a 0.1 percentage point decrease from November, according to the jobs report released on Jan. 10 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Job gains arrived well above projections for December, with a total of 256,000. The consensus estimated monthly expectation was an increase of 153,000, according to Morningstar, an investing firm.
Job gains were primarily in health care; government; and social assistance. Retail trade jobs also increased after a decline the previous month.
» MORE: How is the economy doing?
What are the weekly jobless claims?
Initial jobless claims went down by 10,000 for the week ending Jan. 4, according to the report released on Jan. 9.
The weekly jobless claims, or initial claims, are the number of unemployment insurance claims filed in the past week. They provide an indicator of the strength — or weakness — of the labor market.
Jobless claims decreased to 201,000 for the week ending Jan. 4. Last week’s unrevised level was 211,000.
The new four-week moving average — a measurement of the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the last four weeks — was 213,000, which is 10,250 lower than the previous week’s unrevised average of 223,250.
What's the insured unemployment rate?
Not all types of unemployment are included as part of the insured unemployment rate. It only includes "covered unemployment," as in people who receive unemployment benefits. Those who quit their jobs, for example, aren't included in the insured unemployment rate because they aren't eligible for unemployment benefits.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate — the rate of continuous covered unemployment claims divided by covered employment — was 1.2% for the week ending Dec. 28, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
How many jobs were added in December?
The economy added 256,000. (nonfarm) jobs in December, according to the BLS.
159,280 in November 2024
159,068 in October 2024
159,025 in September 2024
158,770 in August 2024
144,000 in July 2024
118,000 in June 2024
216,000 in May 2024
175,000 in April 2024
303,000 in March 2024
270,000 in February 2024
256,000 in January 2024
What is the current unemployment rate?
The current unemployment rate is 4.1% for December, a slight decrease from November. The rate is higher than unemployment rates during 2023, but matches the rate in December 2023.
Is unemployment rising or falling?
The unemployment rate went down by 0.1 percentage point between November and December. The unemployment rate has risen since March, when it was 3.8%. But, for the last seven months, the unemployment rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.2%.
How to calculate the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate
What is the labor force participation rate?
The labor force participation rate remained at 62.5% in December compared to November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rate has remained within the range of 62.5% and 62.7% since December 2023. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working or looking for work.
The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total population that’s eligible to work. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the total population that’s eligible to work as the “civilian noninstitutional population,” which refers to people ages 16 and older who are not in military service or incarcerated.) The result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Labor force / Civilian noninstitutional population x 100 = X%, which is the labor force participation rate
Since October 2002, the labor force participation rate was lowest in April 2020 (60.1%) and highest in June 2003 (66.5%), according to BLS data.
How is the job market right now?
In recent months, key labor market indicators — job openings, quit rate and layoffs — showed the tight labor market is beginning to loosen. But continuous job growth shows the job market remains resilient.
What does the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary report show?
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on Jan. 7, shows job openings were 8.1 million. The number of openings are down by 833,000 compared to a year ago according to the report.
7.8 million in October
7.4 million in September
7.9 million in August 2024.
7.7 million in July 2024.
7.9 million in June 2024.
8.2 million in May 2024.
7.9 million in April 2024
8.4 million in March 2024.
8.8 million in February 2024
8.7 million in January 2024
The seasonally adjusted job openings rate in November increased slightly at 4.8% compared to October at 4.6%. By comparison, the job openings rate in November 2023 was 5.4%.
The number of job openings in November increased in professional and business services (+273,000); finance and insurance (+105,000); and private educational services (+38,000). Openings decreased in information (-89,000).
The rate of layoffs in November (1.1%) increased slightly from October (1%), according to the JOLTS report. Accommodation and food services saw the largest increase in layoffs.
What is the quit rate?
The JOLTS report also shows the quit rate in November decreased to 1.9% from 2.1% in October. By comparison, in November 2023 the quit rate was 2.2%. Quits decreased in accommodation and food services (90,000), as well as arts, entertainment and recreation (-22,000).
Economists say quit rates are a key factor in the health of employment prospects since quitting shows that workers feel safe making a job switch within their sector or outside it entirely.
The current quit rate is consistent with pre-pandemic levels after peaking at 3% in both Nov. 2021 and April 2022.
Are wages increasing?
Wage growth is moderating from what it was a year ago but is still higher than it was pre-pandemic, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The three-month moving average of median hourly wage growth — when measured over the previous 12 months — has slowed from its peak in the summer of 2022.
For September, the three-month wage growth percent change was 4.6%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than September’s three-month moving average rate (4.7%).
The 12-month moving average was 5% for October. By comparison, the percent change for October 2023 from a year prior was 5.8%. If you look back even further, at the percent change for October 2020 from a year prior, the rate was 3.8%.
» MORE: Is the pay gap real?
Below, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data for August shows a steady decline in the three-month moving average of wage growth compared to the peak in June 2022 and July 2022.
» MORE: What is the minimum wage?
What does the Employment Cost Index Show?
Increases in compensation costs were smaller in the second quarter of 2024, compared with the previous quarter, according to the most recent BLS Employment Cost Index, which measures wage and salary growth. Wages and salaries, as well as benefits comprise total compensation costs.
The Oct. 31 report shows compensation costs increased by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024 compared with 0.9% in the second quarter.
Year-over-year measurements show that compensation cost increases slowed down slightly in the third quarter of 2024 (3.9%) compared to the previous four quarters:
June 2024: 4.1%
March 2024: 4.2%
December 2023: 4.2%
September 2023: 4.3%
For the 12-month period ending in September 2024, wages and salaries had a slower increase (3.9%) compared with the 12-month period ending in September 2023 (4.6%).
Benefit costs also had a slower increase in the 12-month period ending in September (3.7%) compared to a year ago (4.1%).
Will unemployment rise?
The labor market is still strong, but continues to show signs of slackening.
The recent rise in unemployment was a byproduct of monetary policymakers’ effort to curb inflation by hiking interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. Now that inflation is consistently slowing, the Fed has taken steps to prevent unemployment from rising further.
The Fed cut rates at its September, November and December meetings; it has indicated that there could be at least a couple of rate cuts in 2025.
When is the next jobs report?
The next jobs report will show data for January and it will be released on Feb. 7.
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
