You Can’t Escape Climate Change, but in Some Areas, Risk Is Lower

Climate change is frightening, inconvenient, expensive and, increasingly, deadly. And there’s really no escape.

In this year alone, the U.S. has had a myriad of natural hazards worsened by climate change: the earliest recorded Category 5 hurricane to make landfall; floods throughout the country; record-breaking heat everywhere; tornadoes in the Midwest; and wildfires in the West. The La Nina weather pattern is expected to arrive soon, which is likely to fuel storms in the Atlantic during this year’s hurricane season.

Climate change amplifies the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. It can cause all kinds of disruptions and health hazards while driving up expenses like heating, cooling and homeowners insurance.

Get hammered enough by amplified weather events and you might wonder if there’s somewhere a little less hazard-prone to live. While there is no place on Earth that is immune to the impact of climate change, some places are less exposed to risk than others.

Last year, NerdWallet examined federal data and found that most of the fastest-growing places in the U.S. are also at high risk for natural hazards that are exacerbated by climate change. This year, we explored which places — in this case, counties — are least likely to feel the impact of natural hazards.

Isolation doesn’t guarantee fewer risks — just fewer people

If you rank places only by Federal Emergency Management Agency rating, the counties in the U.S. with the lowest risks are the places with the fewest people.

At the top of that list is Loving County in North Texas, where just 64 people reside — the least populous county in the country. No. 2 is Kalawao, Hawaii, which was originally established as an area of forced isolation for people with Hansen’s disease, or what was once more colloquially known as a leper colony. And No. 3 is Keweenaw, Michigan, a peninsula containing a national park where, as the county’s website says, you can “find solitude in the pristine, remote wilderness while sharing trails with the island’s moose and wolves.”

However, solitude doesn’t make for the best measure of risk from natural hazards. FEMA’s risk index takes population into account as part of social and community risk when it makes its risk designations — it stands to reason that the fewer the people, the lower the risk. But, of course, the natural hazards are still there: North Texas isn't immune from extreme heat, tornadoes or extreme thunderstorms, for example. A Hawaiian island won’t be immune from a hurricane, earthquake, flash flood, wildfire or tsunami. And any area that is designated a peninsula, like Keweenaw, Michigan, is highly likely to be flood-prone.

While FEMA’s National Risk Index measures current risk, it must be noted that extreme weather effects are projected to worsen as the planet continues to warm on our current trajectory, and in coming decades, coastal flooding will increase as sea levels rise.

Note also that FEMA’s ratings consider not only the kinds of events that can be worsened by climate change (floods, droughts, wildfires, storms), but also natural hazards that aren't affected by climate change, like earthquakes and volcanoes.

What midsize counties have the lowest climate change risks?

To get a better picture of what might make an area least vulnerable to natural hazards and still boast the creature comforts of basic infrastructure, NerdWallet set a population control of at least 100,000 people. It includes the annual cost of living in 2023 dollars, according to the Economic Policy Institute’s Family Budget Calculator for households comprising two adults and two children.

info

What most populated counties have the lowest climate change risks?

People migrate to some of the most populated areas in the country for obvious reasons, like the availability of housing, jobs, entertainment and a desire for proximity to lots of other people.

Among the counties with populations above 1 million residents, here are the counties where the risk of natural hazards is lowest. The analysis also includes the annual cost of living in 2023 dollars, according to the Economic Policy Institute’s Family Budget Calculator for households with two adults and two children.

No matter where you live, climate change will cost you

The terrible truth about climate change is that even if you uproot your life and move to a place with low risks of natural hazards, intense weather events are still likely to find you. For example, most of the relatively high risks in midsize counties have to do with winter weather. In some places, winters are becoming less severe, but in others, they are worsening. And one big event could be devastating.

In the U.S., extreme weather events cost nearly $150 billion per year, according to The Fifth National Climate Assessment, a report released in November 2023 by the federal government. That sum doesn’t account for additional costs including loss of life, health care costs, or damages to what are known as ecosystem services — for example, food, water, timber and oil. There's a billion-dollar weather or climate disaster in the U.S. every three weeks, on average, the report found. That is compared with one every four months in the 1980s.

Despite all this, nearly half of all Americans (45%) don't believe that climate change will affect them personally, according to a December 2023 survey by Yale University. So how about what a single person pays: Issues related to climate change will cost a child born in the U.S. in 2024 at least $500,000 — and as much as $1 million — over their lifetime due to indirect and direct costs (such as missed cost-of-living increases and lower earnings), according to an April analysis conducted by ICF, a global consulting firm, and released by Consumer Reports.

Some current and future costs are likely to include:

• Homeowners insurance. If you’re a homeowner, you know all too well how heightened weather-related disaster risks play into your homeowners insurance premiums. In certain places where risk is highest, private insurers won’t provide coverage for floods and wildfires. 

• Home maintenance, upgrades and safeguards against climate risks. These could include installing a sump pump or resealing basement walls; upgrading insulation and windows; adding or enhancing heating or ventilation systems; roofing upgrades and more. 

• Energy bills. With increased heating and cooling needs come higher energy bills. 

• Food. Weather changes present challenges to food production, which could lower supply and increase prices. 

• Higher taxes due to more government spending and lower government revenues. The Consumer Reports report cites reduced personal and corporation earnings that lead to less tax revenue combined with higher expenses that the government must take on for health care and infrastructure damages. 

• Lower income. The Consumer Reports analysis cites a possible decrease in labor hours due to extreme weather, which may lead to lower earnings.  

Climate migration within the U.S. is already happening. A 2021 survey by the real estate website Redfin found that among those who plan to move, half say climate change-fueled conditions like natural disasters and extreme temperatures are factors in their decision. There are expenses associated with uprooting your life and moving elsewhere — and those aren’t costs that everyone can afford.

(Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images News via Getty Images).