War Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Surge

Negotiations to end the war have stuttered and oil prices are spiking.

Anna Helhoski
Taryn Phaneuf
Rick VanderKnyff
Updated
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Updated on May 18.
The average regular gas price in the U.S. as of May 18 is $4.515 per gallon, according to AAA.
  • One week ago: $4.520
  • One month ago: $4.058
  • One year ago: $3.179
Gas prices remain at their highest level in four years, according to AAA, as shipping disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz.
All shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz is closed for now and a durable end to the Iran War is proving elusive. A ceasefire began on April 8 and has been extended indefinitely, but on-again, off-again negotiations have not yet yielded a breakthrough.
Recent actions suggest tension is escalating. On May 17, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.”
A framework for peace is still in negotiations. On May 18, Iranian state media said U.S. officials have agreed to suspend sanctions against Iran’s crude oil exports. The White House has not confirmed the claim.
Meanwhile, oil prices are yo-yo’ing. On May 18, an attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates sent the price of Brent crude oil rising to $112 per barrel. On Feb. 28, the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, the average price of a gallon of regular gas was just under $3.
The text and charts below are fully updated weekly.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the widening conflict has roiled global energy markets, shaken investor confidence and pushed average gas prices up to their highest levels in four years.
Brent crude — the global benchmark — has moved sharply up and down with each new twist in the war, generally trading around $95 but spiking well above $100 per barrel at times. It traded below $70 as recently as mid-February and was below $80 when the conflict began. It marked the first time oil has traded above $100 since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. If the war continues into the summer, oil could reach $200 per barrel, according to analysts from Macquarie Group, an investment banking company.
On April 14, the International Monetary Fund cited effects of the war as it cut its global growth forecasts for 2026, and warned that further escalation in the war could trigger “a close call for a global recession.”
The U.S., despite being the world’s largest producer of oil, can see gas prices rise in response to any shock to the world’s oil supply.

What are gas prices like right now?

As of May 18, gas prices are continuing to rise. This followed a period when weeks of daily price hikes brought the national average for a gallon of regular to over $4, according to AAA, which tracks fuel costs. State averages range from $3.975 in Texas to $6.151 in California. Gas prices were below $3 in 39 states in February.
Refineries are beginning to switch back to producing a summer blend, which is more expensive than the winter blend, which could contribute to rising prices soon.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says the falling price of crude oil — accounting for half of retail gas prices — helped lower prices at the pump in 2025. On a monthly average basis, the price of Brent crude oil dropped from $79 per barrel in January 2025 to $63 per barrel in December 2025 — its lowest average monthly price since the start of 2021, according to the EIA.
Pump prices were stable over the summer and fell in the fall and winter, especially compared to recent years. Oil prices moderated at around $65 a barrel after spiking briefly in June 2025 in response to the Israel-Iran conflict, and were below $60 at the beginning of the year. They have risen sharply since the war began.
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Gas price inflation, explained

Gas prices surged in 2021 and 2022, largely due to two economic disruptions: pandemic-related supply shocks and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The combination of the two hit energy markets hard and prices never recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Here’s what happened:
  • In 2019, before the pandemic, the average per-gallon price of regular gas was $2.601,  according to EIA data.
  • Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the national average increased before peaking at $5.016 per gallon on June 14, 2022, according to AAA. 
  • Until the Iran invasion, gas prices had retreated, but hadn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Why gas prices remain higher than they used to be

At this time of year, seasonal factors play a considerable role in raising gas prices. A scheduled switch to summer-blend gasoline temporarily elevates prices through the warm months. Inflation, supply-chain disruptions and gas tax hikes can factor into higher prices, as well. But in the end, elevated oil prices are the main culprit.
The cost of oil typically represents more than half of the cost of a gallon of gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). So, a major reason gas prices have remained so high is that, until recently, oil prices were higher than they were before the pandemic hit in 2020 and Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. That’s based on the average monthly price of West Texas Intermediate crude, which is used as the benchmark for oil prices in North America.
For much of the year to date fuel costs had been lower than they were a year ago. That has changed dramatically in the last few weeks. Here’s how gas prices compare today:
As of May 18, the average regular gas price in the U.S. is $4.515 per gallon, according to AAA, which tracks gas prices.
  • The price is down from $4.520 a gallon a week ago.
  • The price is up from $4.058 per gallon a month ago. 
  • A year ago, the price was $3.179 per gallon.
Oil prices are still below their June 2022 peak of almost $120 per barrel.

Average gas price per state

The average gas price per state varies widely, with the most expensive state typically costing about $2 more per gallon of regular than the least expensive state.
(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)