How the Federal Reserve Affects Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve is one of many influences on mortgage rates, along with inflation and economic growth.
How the Federal Reserve Affects Mortgage Rates

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The Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, but doesn't set them. On Dec. 18, 2024, the central bank reduced the federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, as markets had widely anticipated. In the news release accompanying the announcement, the committee members noted that there's still progress to be made on employment and inflation.

Mortgage rates are influenced by many elements, including the inflation rate, the pace of job creation, and whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a factor, too, and is set by the Federal Open Market Committee.

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What the Federal Reserve does

The Federal Reserve is the nation's central bank. It guides the economy with the twin goals of encouraging job growth while keeping inflation under control.

The FOMC pursues those goals through monetary policy: managing the supply of money and the cost of credit. Its main monetary policy tool is the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge one another for short-term loans. Although there's no such thing as "federal mortgage rates," the federal funds rate influences interest rates for longer-term loans, including mortgages.

The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, to tweak monetary policy. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% for more than a year before beginning to cut rates in September 2024. Its next meeting is Jan. 28-29, 2025. Financial markets are split on what to expect from that meeting, but a pause that holds rates steady feels likely.

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The Federal Reserve, mortgage rates and inflation

Mortgage rates respond to many economic signals besides the federal funds rate. One major influence is inflation. The Fed's goal is to maintain an inflation rate of around 2%. Inflation has been above that for some time, which is why the Fed held interest rates on the high side. The idea is that higher borrowing costs will slow the economy and bring down inflation.

The consumer price index increased 0.3% in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Dec. 11, to an annual rate of 2.7%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 3.3% year-over-year.

Even though the November numbers came in right where markets expected, that wasn't great news. The rate of inflation rose slightly after holding steady for four months. If it starts to look like the Federal Reserve is losing ground against inflation, the central bankers could begin raising interest rates to cool things off.

The availability of jobs also influences monetary policy. When the economy is creating lots of jobs, it means the economy is growing — a situation that tends to push the inflation rate higher. The Fed responds by raising interest rates. When job creation slows down, or when many people lose their jobs, inflation tends to fall. The Fed responds by cutting interest rates.

Unlike the latest CPI, the most recent jobs report offered the Fed some needed support for a rate cut. In November, the U.S. added 227,000 jobs. This was vastly higher than the previous month, but October had been abnormally low due to unexpected events like hurricanes. Rising unemployment was the more notable metric, bolstering the case for lower interest rates.

Do mortgage rates follow Fed rates?

The Fed and the mortgage market move like dance partners: Sometimes the Fed leads, sometimes the mortgage market leads, and sometimes they dance on their own.

Lately, mortgage rates have been dancing to their own drummer. So far this year, mortgage rates mostly rose from January through May, then fell from May through September — almost entirely while the Fed held interest rates steady. The Fed announced its rate cut Sept. 18, yet mortgage rates began a fairly steep rise shortly after. It's only in recent weeks that mortgage rates have trended downward.

The FOMC prefers to give investors a heads-up whenever it plans to raise or cut short-term interest rates. Members of the committee advertise their intentions by sprinkling hints into their public speeches. By the time the committee meets, there's usually a consensus among investors as to whether the Fed will cut rates, raise them or keep them unchanged.

As that consensus solidifies before an FOMC meeting, mortgage rates usually drift in the direction that the Fed is expected to move. Often, by the time of the meeting, mortgage rates already reflect the expected rate change.

At the same time, mortgage rates move up and down daily in reaction to the ebb and flow of the U.S. and global economies, which are the same developments that the Fed responds to.

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Federal funds rate and HELOCs

Although there's merely an indirect link between mortgage rates and the federal funds rate, the Fed does have a direct influence on the rates charged on home equity lines of credit, which typically have adjustable rates.

Interest rates on HELOCs are linked to the Wall Street Journal prime rate, which is the base rate on corporate loans by the largest banks. The prime rate, in turn, moves with the federal funds rate.

Current prime rate

Prime rate last week

Prime rate in the past year — low

Prime rate in the past year — high

7.5%

7.75%

7.5%

8.5%

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Mortgage loans from our partners

NBKC - PURCHASE logo
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NerdWallet rating 
NBKC - PURCHASE logo

4.5

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Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
3%

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on NBKC

New American Funding - PURCHASE logo
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NerdWallet rating 
New American Funding - PURCHASE logo

4.5

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Min. credit score 
500

Min. down payment 
3.5%

Check Rate

on New American Funding

GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo
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4.0

NerdWallet rating 
GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo

4.0

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
3%

Check Rate

on GO Mortgage

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4.5

NerdWallet rating 
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4.5

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Min. credit score 
580

Min. down payment 
3.5%

Check Rate

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