Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Groundhog looking forward

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Updated · 1 min read
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Written by Taylor Getler
Lead Writer & Content Strategist
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Edited by Johanna Arnone
Managing Editor

Mortgage rates this week

Mortgage interest rates dropped to their lowest point since mid-December, marking the third consecutive week that the 30-year rate remained under 7%.

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.81% APR, down 11 basis points from the previous week's average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

  • The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.99% APR, down 12 basis points from the previous week's average.

  • The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.25% APR, down five basis points from the previous week's average.

Mortgage interest rates may be trending downward, but don’t count on any major shifts by March. Most people hate economic uncertainty, but the Federal Reserve really hates it.

Central bankers typically like to see several weeks or months of consistent data before deciding to change the federal funds rate, which indirectly affects the direction of mortgage interest rates. The Trump administration has announced many sweeping policy moves during the president’s initial weeks in office, and the Fed is unlikely to take action until the economic consequences are more fully understood.

Mortgage loans from our partners

NBKC - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on NBKC

NBKC

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
NBKC - PURCHASE logo

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
3%

Check Rate

on NBKC

New American Funding - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on New American Funding

New American Funding

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
New American Funding - PURCHASE logo

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
500

Min. down payment 
3.5%

Check Rate

on New American Funding

GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on GO Mortgage

GO Mortgage

4.0

NerdWallet rating 
GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo

4.0

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
3%

Check Rate

on GO Mortgage

Mortgage loans from our partners

NBKC - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on NBKC

NBKC

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
NBKC - PURCHASE logo

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
3%

Check Rate

on NBKC

New American Funding - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on New American Funding

New American Funding

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
New American Funding - PURCHASE logo

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
500

Min. down payment 
3.5%

Check Rate

on New American Funding

GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on GO Mortgage

GO Mortgage

4.0

NerdWallet rating 
GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo

4.0

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
3%

Check Rate

on GO Mortgage

Rocket Mortgage - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on Rocket Mortgage

Rocket Mortgage

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
Rocket Mortgage - PURCHASE logo

4.5

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
580

Min. down payment 
3.5%

Check Rate

on Rocket Mortgage

Veterans United - PURCHASE logo
Check Rate

on Veterans United

Veterans United

5.0

NerdWallet rating 
Veterans United - PURCHASE logo

5.0

NerdWallet rating 
Min. credit score 
620

Min. down payment 
0%

Check Rate

on Veterans United

February mortgage rate forecast

Mortgage rates may drift downward throughout February.

As long as investors believe the Federal Reserve is succeeding at taming inflation, mortgage rates will likely settle lower. But rates aren't guaranteed to fall. They could rise on news of economic vigor. Specifically, if inflation flares up, or if businesses hire more workers than expected, investors might nudge mortgage rates higher to compensate for the risk of continuing price increases.

Borrowers can watch for two releases of economic data in February. First, the employment report for January is scheduled to be released the morning of Feb. 7. If it shows unexpectedly strong job growth, then mortgage rates could rise immediately after.

Second, the consumer price index for January is scheduled for release on Feb. 12. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation forecast, core CPI is expected to fall to 3.1% in January, down from 3.2% the previous month. If the CPI comes in higher than expected, we might see an increase in mortgage rates.

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