How the Federal Reserve Affects Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve is one of many influences on mortgage rates, along with inflation and economic growth.

How the Federal Reserve Affects Mortgage Rates

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Updated · 2 min read
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Written by Holden Lewis
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The Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, but doesn't set them. On Mar. 19, 2025, the central bank kept the federal funds rate steady, in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. In the news release accompanying the announcement, the committee members said the inflation rate "remains somewhat elevated."

Mortgage rates are influenced by many elements, including the inflation rate, the pace of job creation, and whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a factor, too, and is set by the Federal Open Market Committee.

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What the Federal Reserve does

The Federal Reserve is the nation's central bank. It guides the economy with the twin goals of encouraging job growth while keeping inflation under control.

The FOMC pursues those goals through monetary policy: managing the supply of money and the cost of credit. Its main monetary policy tool is the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge one another for short-term loans. Although there's no such thing as "federal mortgage rates," the federal funds rate influences interest rates for longer-term loans, including mortgages.

The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, to tweak monetary policy. Its next meeting is May 6-7. Financial markets are betting the Fed will continue to hold rates steady at that meeting.

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The Federal Reserve, mortgage rates and inflation

Mortgage rates respond to many economic signals besides the federal funds rate. One major influence is inflation. The Fed's goal is to maintain an inflation rate of around 2%. Inflation has been above that for some time, which is why the Fed has continued to hold interest rates on the high side. The idea is that higher borrowing costs will slow the economy and bring down inflation.

The consumer price index increased 0.2% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Mar. 12, to an annual rate of 2.8%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was at an annual rate of 3.1%.

The availability of jobs also influences monetary policy. When the economy is creating lots of jobs, it means the economy is growing — a situation that tends to push the inflation rate higher. The Fed responds by raising interest rates. When job creation slows down, or when many people lose their jobs, inflation tends to fall. The Fed responds by cutting interest rates.

The most recent jobs report could be an early sign that rate cuts are coming. The economy added 151,000 jobs in February, which was better than the previous month but below expectations. But experts aren't feeling confident enough to predict whether job growth will remain strong.

Do mortgage rates follow Fed rates?

The Fed and the mortgage market move like dance partners: Sometimes the Fed leads, sometimes the mortgage market leads, and sometimes they dance on their own.

In the Fed's previous meeting, on Jan. 28-29, the central bank held the federal funds rate steady. Mortgage rates, in contrast, dropped about a third of a percentage point between January and March.

The FOMC prefers to give investors a heads-up whenever it plans to raise or cut short-term interest rates. Members of the committee advertise their intentions by sprinkling hints into their public speeches. By the time the committee meets, there's usually a consensus among investors as to whether the Fed will cut rates, raise them or keep them unchanged.

The result of this meeting — no change to the federal funds rate — was well-communicated beforehand. The drop in mortgage rates between the Fed's January and March meetings is more reflective of recent stock market turmoil. The FOMC tends to move slowly and deliberately, taking a long-term outlook. Mortgage interest rates fluctuate, at times jumping or falling on a daily basis.

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Federal funds rate and HELOCs

Although there's merely an indirect link between mortgage rates and the federal funds rate, the Fed does have a direct influence on the rates charged on home equity lines of credit, which typically have adjustable rates.

Interest rates on HELOCs are linked to the Wall Street Journal prime rate, which is the base rate on corporate loans by the largest banks. The prime rate, in turn, moves with the federal funds rate.

Current prime rate

Prime rate last week

Prime rate in the past year — low

Prime rate in the past year — high

7.5%

7.5%

7.5%

8.5%

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