Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates this week

Mortgage rates fell across the board the week ending March 6, marking a third straight week of lower rates.

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51% APR, down 14 basis points from the previous week's average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.7% APR, down 17 basis points from the previous week's average.

• The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.04% APR, down 14 basis points from the previous week's average.

Mortgage interest rates had every reason to stay down this past week. On the last day of February, the latest personal consumption expenditures numbers came in right where markets expected. The PCE, which measures household spending on various consumer goods and services, is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.

At this point, data that matches expectations is great news on inflation — it doesn't demand action from the Fed, which next meets Mar. 18-19. Central bankers saw enough progress on inflation to cut rates three times in 2024. But more recently, the Fed has felt the need for caution, holding rates steady. If progress on inflation were to backslide, the Fed would need to change course, too. The slightest whiff of a rate hike would likely get mortgage rates rising, but for now, we don't have reason to expect one.