Insights Into Economic Data and Research
Insights and commentary on recent economic data and research, from NerdWallet's Senior Economist Elizabeth Renter.
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May 6, 2025: Souring Sentiment - Why Now is Different
Falling consumer economic sentiment is likely to impact future saving and spending decisions, and we’ll see these decisions make their way into the official economic data in months to come. But this isn’t the first time in recent history that people have felt bad about the economy. The difference is this time they’re lacking the protection of excess savings, low debt levels and a labor market more favorable to workers.
Consumer economic sentiment has been suffering, according to surveys from the University of Michigan and The Conference Board, two of the most well-known sources of such data. And some consumers may already be taking action — an overwhelming majority of Americans (87%) say they’ll change their financial strategy over the next 12 months because of the Trump Administration’s tariffs, according to a recent NerdWallet survey.
Just a few years ago, we saw similar lackluster consumer sentiment, but that didn’t bleed into the real data. The difference? Household financial situations. We could spend a lot of time unpacking why people felt bad when the economy was good in 2022 and into 2023 (I did some of that here). But their spending behavior didn’t change to match that sentiment because, on average, they still had excess savings, recent equity growth and a labor market biased in favor of workers. Now? Well, now that excess savings has been spent down, the stock market is particularly volatile, debt balances are up and accounts increasingly delinquent, the job market isn’t benefitting those in need of work and there is so much risk on the horizon.
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May 5, 2025: Unemployment Among Recent College Grads
Despite recent college graduates having a particularly tough time in the current job market, the most recent research indicates a postsecondary education still provides a good return on investment, long-term. From the time they begin their college career, students should be preparing for their exit — student loan debt, a gap before employment and a lower-than-ideal starting wage may be their initial realities. But a cautious approach to borrowing along with establishing fail-safes and solid support systems can make their entry into the professional world a bit easier.
The unemployment rate of recent college graduates (ages 22-27) is near 6% as of March 2025, according to the Current Population Survey. That’s higher than the overall unemployment rate (4%). Historically, the jobless rate of recent grads has been lower than the “all workers” rate. That first began to change around 2018, and since 2022 those rates have diverged further.
The BLS also publishes an annual release of related data, in greater detail. In that, the agency reports the unemployment rate of recent bachelor’s degree recipients (ages 20-29) to have been 15.3% in 2024.
Still, a college degree remains a good investment, for most. Recent research from the New York Fed indicates an annual wage premium of more than $30,000 for college graduates, though mileage varies based on the time spent achieving that degree and choice of majors.
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