Professional Deal Finder Reveals Truth About Cheap Airfare

Airfare prices change constantly, fueling plenty of myths about the best time to book and how to find the lowest fares. Scott Keyes, founder of Going — a travel app that sends out airfare deal alerts, — has heard them all.

“You've heard the advice to book on Tuesday at 1 p.m., or Saturday at midnight, or exactly 63 days before,” Keyes said in an episode of NerdWallet's Smart Travel podcast. “The fact that there are so many different rules about when you're supposed to book should kind of be the tip-off that it's a little bit of a myth.”

While there is no golden rule, Keyes does have six tips and takeaways from over a decade as a professional flight deal finder.

Keyes says the best time to book a flight isn’t so much tied to a specific time or day, but rather how many months in advance you make your purchase. He recommends booking within what he calls the “Goldilocks window.”

“It’s not too early, not too late, but just right in the middle,” he said, describing this ideal booking time.

Here’s the Goldilocks window for each type of flight:

• Domestic flights (off-peak): 1 to 3 months in advance.

• Domestic flights (peak seasons like summer or Christmas): 3 to 6 months in advance.

• International flights (off-peak): 2 to 8 months in advance.

• International flights (peak seasons): 4 to 10 months in advance.

Some people believe that airlines are “watching” your computer usage by way of cookies, which track how you interact with websites, and using this data to charge higher fares to those who search repeatedly for flights.

Keyes says these theories don’t make sense though — especially given his line of work.

“If airfare prices changed based on repeated searches, we’d see it because we track millions of airfares every single day,” he said. “If somebody was going to see higher flight prices impacted by repeated searches, it would be us. Yet we don’t.”

Budget airlines like Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines are known for charging fees for carry-on bags and other services. But their ultra-low base fares could help some travelers spend less.

“If you’re traveling with just a backpack, budget airlines can absolutely save you money,” he said. “I’ve looked at flights from my home airport in Portland down to Las Vegas, and the Spirit flight cost $25 each way when the next-closest Alaska Airlines flight costs $130.”

And you might be surprised at the convenient routing options on budget airlines, too.

“Especially to destinations like Las Vegas and Orlando, budget airlines actually have the most nonstop flights,” Keyes said. “If you're flying from say, Minneapolis or Des Moines, Iowa, you actually might be able to get a nonstop flight on a budget airline.”

Just be aware of the extra fees for things that are often included in other airlines, such as carry-on bags and even an in-flight beverage. Once you add up those costs, the total price can sometimes be more expensive than full-service airlines.

Avoiding layovers when possible (especially if it involves saving money) can reduce travel time and also mitigate the risk of snowballing delays.

If you book a flight with a layover, find out what your alternative flight options might be if a delay makes you miss your connecting flights. You should aim to fly with airlines that have multiple flights a day to your destination from the connecting airport.

“If you've got a flight on Spirit and that flight gets canceled, it might be a while until there's the next available Spirit flight to your destination,” Keyes said. “They don't have partnerships with other airlines to put you on a different carrier, so you could actually be waiting sometimes days to get a replacement flight. That's something that usually doesn't happen if you're on Delta Air Lines or United Airlines.”

One thing Keyes has learned over the years: Airfare deals don’t stick around for long. It’s important to act fast, he notes, or they can slip away.

“I once found a deal to India for $212 round trip,” he said. “My heart skipped a beat. I had sweaty palms. I was so excited. But instead of booking it immediately, I spent a couple of hours figuring out my itinerary. When I went to book, I missed it by 30 seconds."

The lesson?

"Book first, ask questions later,” he said.

In the U.S., federal regulations make it easier to get a refund if you change your mind after booking. Under the 24-hour rule, airlines are required to refund your money to the original form of payment if you cancel within 24 hours of purchasing that airfare.

"Most people say they want cheap flights, but they go about finding them in the exact opposite way,” Keyes said. Rather than looking at prices first, he added, they look at destinations and dates first.

He suggests flipping the process:

1. Start with price: Identify the cheapest flights available.

2. Pick your destination: Choose from the available deals.

3. Select your dates: Work within the cheapest available timeframes.

"What I tell folks is like, ‘Look, if cheap flights are a priority, make them the priority,'" he said. “By setting price as the last priority, we end up with some pretty expensive flights."

Want to hear more from Scott Keyes? Tune in to Episode 7 of NerdWallet’s Smart Travel podcast for the full interview with Smart Travel co-host Sally French. And who would you like to see us interview next? Drop us an email at [email protected] with your feedback.