Kurt Woock
Beth Buczynski
It’s hard to predict the future, but plenty of people try — real estate experts included. Many of those experts thought pent-up demand would break through in 2024 after a tough 2023.
There were indeed some inflection points — interest rates fell and average prices rose — but Canadian home buyers have generally been slow to come off the sidelines.
Let’s take a closer look at where we started the year and how things actually unfolded.
Interest Rates
2024 predictions: Cautiously optimistic
At the beginning 2024, economists predicted the Bank of Canada would drop the overnight rate from 5% to between 3.5% and 4% by year’s end. A Bank of Canada survey in early 2024 also showed that consumers also expected rates to drop.[1]
What happened: Rates fell…a few times
The BoC has cut the overnight rate multiple times; it currently stands at 3.75%, and the group meets once more before the year’s end. One effect: More homeowners have opted for variable rates as rates have fallen.[2]
Home prices
2024 predictions: Prices will go up, but nothing crazy
Where did real estate experts see prices going when 2024 started?
- REMAX predicted the national average sales price would rise 0.5%.[3]
- Royal LePage predicted the aggregate price of a home in Canada would rise 5.5%.[4]
While these sources calculate prices in slightly different ways, they pointed in a similar direction: a modest rise in home prices in 2024.
What happened: Depends where you live
A hot start in the first three months of 2024 gave way to lackluster demand and stagnating national prices. But when you look at individual markets, you’ll find a bigger price variance. In Alberta and New Brunswick, for example, prices have jumped close to 10% while B.C. and Ontario saw prices hold or dip slightly.
Home sales activity
2024 predictions: Notable bump in sales
- An RBC report from January projected home resales would grow 9.2% in 2024.[5]
- CREA predicted 2024 would see 10% more homes sold compared to 2023.[6]
What happened: Bump in sales? Yes. Notable? Debatable.
Those early estimates were a bit too optimistic, and buyers showed more restraint than expected.
- In July, RBC released a new forecast that predicted a 3.9% increase in home resales by year’s end.[7]
- In October, CREA revised its year-end sales estimate from a 10% annual increase to a 5.2% increase.[8]
Outstanding questions for next year
If you hope to buy a house in 2025, you probably can’t help but wonder what lies ahead. Next year’s burning questions include:
- Will more buyers enter the market? If so, how high will prices go?
- Will housing supply rebound or continue to fall short?
- Will home buyers’ be able to save for down payments amid rising debt burdens?
- What effects will a higher price cap on insured mortgages and expanding access to 30-year amortization periods have?
No matter what happens, early preparation — and an open mind — will help you stay on track toward your goal.
Article Sources
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Bank of Canada, “Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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Statistics Canada, “Funds advanced, outstanding balances, and interest rates for new and existing lending, Bank of Canada,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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RE/MAX Canada, “Undeterred by affordability challenges, consumer confidence in home ownership as an investment remains steady year-over-year,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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Royal LePage, “The ‘great adjustment’: Canadians to adapt to new reality as housing market returns to near-normal in 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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RBC, “Canada's housing market outlook: A tale of two halves in 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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The Canadian Real Estate Association, “CREA Forecasting Increase in Home Sales for 2024,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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RBC, “Home resale and price forecast,” accessed November 8, 2024.
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The Canadian Real Estate Association, “Scene Is Set for Home Sales Rebound in 2025; September Sees Modest Gains,” accessed November 8, 2024.
About the Author
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