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Ontario mortgage rate update: November 2024
For the first time in a while, fixed mortgage rates are in the news. Unfortunately for mortgage shoppers in Ontario, most of the talk has been around fixed rates rising in response to the recent U.S. election.
U.S. government bond yields rose following Trump’s win on November 5, 2024, the result of investors selling their bonds and moving into more growth-oriented assets. When bond yields in the U.S. fall, the yields on three- and five-year government bonds in Canada tend to follow suit.
This is significant because it’s those bond yields that determine Canada’s three- and five-year fixed mortgage rates. When yields increase over an extended period, fixed rates do too.
There was a notable spike in yields on November 6, but they quickly returned to their pre-election levels. Fixed mortgage rates haven’t moved, but with yields being significantly higher than they were in October, there’s no reason to believe that fixed rates will move anywhere but up.
For now, the lowest fixed mortgage rates in Canada are hovering around 4%.
Variable mortgage rates remain stable, and won’t change until the Bank of Canada delivers its next overnight rate decision on December 11. Another cut is likely, but it’s difficult to say whether the Bank will announce another jumbo 50-basis point reduction. If it does, variable mortgage rates will once again be Canadians’ most affordable option.
What’s a good mortgage rate in Ontario right now?
As of November 2024, you can find fixed mortgage rates for below 4.3% and variable mortgage rates for less than 5% in Ontario. The rate you’re offered will ultimately depend on factors like your credit score, total debt level and income, and whether you apply for your mortgage with a Big Six bank or through a mortgage broker.
Ontario mortgage rate forecast: Will rates keep going down?
Variable mortgage rates
After the Bank of Canada’s fourth consecutive overnight rate cut on October 23 variable mortgage rates continued their fall.
There’s one more scheduled rate announcement, in December, and there’s a good chance it results in another rate cut. The BoC has stated, “if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further.”
Fixed mortgage rates
Fixed mortgage rates are difficult to project over the long-term because they’re determined by investors’ decisions in the bond market.
Prior to August 2024’s stock market turbulence, analysts weren’t expecting fixed mortgage rates to fall drastically before the end of 2024. But three-year bond yields quickly sank to their lowest point since April 2022, five-year yields dipped lower than they’ve been in over a year, and fixed mortgage rates edged below 4.3% in some cases. None of this was predicted.
Barring any more investor panic attacks, fixed rates should stay comfortably above 4% for the rest of the year.
Ontario housing market update
As of October 2024, you can find fixed mortgage rates for below 4.2% and variable mortgage rates for around 5% in Ontario. The rate you’re offered will ultimately depend on factors like your credit score, total debt level and income.
Ontario home sales had a big October. Sales increased 36.7% year-over-year, according to the Ontario Real Estate Association. Despite that increase, sales figures were still below the five- and 10-year monthly averages. New listings were up year-over-year as well as above 5-year and 10-year averages.
The average sale price in the province, $878,620, was up 3.1% from one year ago. The average price in the Greater Toronto Area, $1,148,265, was up 1.4% year-over-year.
Ontario home sales and price forecast
Many Ontarians wonder how lower rates will affect the housing market. Will better rates compel more buyers, or will lower rates be offset by challenges such as elevated prices — up nearly 10% in Ontario since October 2023? These are the questions real estate experts — and home buyers — will be watching through the end of 2024.
A report released by real estate company Royal LePage forecasts home prices increasing 9% in the last three months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.[1]
A report from the Canadian Real Estate Association stated that listings are up this summer compared to 2023 but still below historical averages. The organization said it “has scaled back” its forecast for 2024 and 2025.[2]
Spring home sales in the Toronto area were low, which kept prices flat according to the Royal LePage report. The report suggested the market will pick up at the end of the year, and the projected 10% increase in prices compared to 2023 would be the biggest price jump among major markets in Canada.
Ontario first-time home buyer programs
Getting a good mortgage rate is key to controlling your monthly mortgage payment. But there’s also a need for upfront cash to fund a down payment and closing costs. First-time home buyer programs may be able to help reduce some of these upfront costs.
Land transfer tax refund
When buying your first home in Ontario, you can claim a refund up to $4,000 of land transfer taxes.[3] If you’re a first-time home buyer in Toronto, you may qualify for a $4,475 refund on your municipal land transfer tax.[4]
Other first-time home buyer programs
Areas including Waterloo, the County of Simcoe, Kingston and Chatham-Kent have home buyer assistance programs that can keep costs down.
Ontario land transfer taxes
Factor in the land transfer tax when buying a house in Ontario.[5] The amount you’re charged is based on your home’s value.
You’ll pay:
- 0.5% on the first $55,000 of the home’s value.
- 1.0% on additional value that’s more than $55,000 and up to $250,000.
- 1.5% on additional value that’s more than $250,000 and up to $400,000.
- 2.0% on additional value that’s more than $400,000.
- 2.5% on additional value that’s more than $2,000,000 if the land contains one or two single-family residences.
And if you’re buying in Toronto, you’ll pay a municipal land transfer tax as well.[6]
Guide to Ontario mortgage rates
Types of lenders in Ontario
Mortgage lenders in Ontario tend to fall into four categories, which include:
- Large chartered banks such as Scotiabank, RBC and TD.
- Credit unions such as Northern Credit Union and Alterna Savings.
- B lenders that work with borrowers with lower credit scores, such as MCAN and Equitable Bank.
- Private lenders, who typically deal with borrowers in need of short-term funding.
Types of mortgages in Ontario
There’s more to getting a mortgage than looking for the lowest rate.
You’ll need to choose whether to lock in your rate for the duration of your mortgage.
| Fixed-rate mortgages | Variable-rate mortgages | Hybrid-rate mortgages |
| The interest rate stays the same for the duration of the mortgage term in a fixed-rate mortgage, even if the market fluctuates. Historically higher rates than variable mortgages. | Variable mortgage rates increase or decrease whenever your lender’s prime rate increases or decreases. Historically lower than a fixed-rate mortgage, but it’s also riskier. | A portion of your mortgage is subject to a variable rate and another portion is at a fixed rate of interest. Relatively uncommon. |
The size of your down payment determines whether you’ll be shopping for insured rates or uninsured rates.
| Insured mortgage | Uninsured mortgage |
| If your down payment is under 20%, you must insure your mortgage. Mortgage insurance adds to the cost of your loan. The closer your down payment is to 20%, the smaller your insurance payment is. Homes over $1.5 million require a down payment of at least 20% (homes purchased before December 15, 2024, have a $1 million threshold). | If your down payment is at least 20%, you won’t need insurance. When you’re looking for mortgages you may notice that rates for uninsured mortgages are usually higher than insured mortgages. Don’t worry — after taking into consideration the cost of mortgage insurance, uninsured mortgages are cheaper. |
You’ll also need to choose between an open and a closed mortgage.
| Closed mortgage | Open mortgage |
| Closed mortgages often offer better rates than open mortgages. You can make extra mortgage payments up to a limit without penalty. | You can make all the extra payments you want with an open mortgage. But you’ll pay a higher rate. |
How Ontario lenders determine mortgage rates
The mortgage rate you’re offered in Ontario will be based on two primary factors; the state of the economy and your financial situation.
Economic factors
Variable mortgage rates are influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. When the overnight rate increases or decreases, a lender’s prime rate follows suit. Variable mortgage rates are based on a lender’s prime rate, so as the prime rate rises or falls, so do variable rates.
Fixed mortgage rates are determined by activity in the government bond market, particularly the yields on one-, three- and five-year bonds. Fixed mortgage rates follow the movement of those yields.
Your financial situation
Factors specific to you also affect the rates you’re offered. These include:
- Your credit score.
- Your income.
- Your total debts.
- The loan type you choose.
- The amount you’re borrowing.
- The term length and amortization period of your loan.
Calculators to inform your home buying decisions
How to qualify for the best mortgage rate in Ontario
Some factors behind rates are beyond your control, but there are steps you can take to possibly qualify for the best mortgage rates, including:
- Improve your credit score. A higher credit score generally results in better offers. Get a better score by eliminating existing debt and paying future bills in full and on time.
- Increase your income. It’s not always easy, but any additional income will improve your financial position. Lenders look at your income to assess your ability to afford a mortgage.
- Decrease your total debts. Pay down personal loans, student loans or other types of debts. Lenders consider your total debt load when determining the details of your loan.
- Consider all your options. See if adjusting the loan type, the term length or the amortization period of your loan could help.
Frequently asked questions about Ontario mortgage rates
Mortgage rates mmight decline further in the last two months of 2024. Variable mortgage rates dipped by 125 basis points between June and October, and should decrease by at least another 50 basis points before the end of the year. Fixed mortgage rates should settle somewhere between 4% and 4.5%
Article Sources
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Royal LePage, “Home Prices and Forecasts,” accessed August 28, 2024.
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The Canadian Real Estate Association, “CREA Scales Back Resale Housing Market Forecast,” accessed August 28, 2024.
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Government of Ontario, “Land Transfer Tax Refunds for First-Time Homebuyers,” accessed August 28, 2024.
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City of Toronto, “Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT) Rebate Opportunities,” accessed August 28, 2024.
-
Government of Ontario, “Land Transfer Tax,” accessed August 28, 2024.
-
City of Toronto, “Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT),” accessed August 28, 2024.
About the Author
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